Source: Marginal REVOLUTION
The obsession with negotiating an AI pause between superpowers misses the real power asymmetry: whoever verifies compliance controls the narrative, and verification of capability thresholds is technically near-impossible, making such agreements performative gestures that create false confidence while the actual race accelerates underground. This reflects a deeper pattern where geopolitical actors are retreating into comforting policy frameworks rather than grappling with the genuine uncertainty that makes both competition and cooperation equally intractable.